2026 World Cup Quarterfinals: SI Experts Predict Every Result

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“It will depend on small details,” Qatar manager Julen Lopetegui fretted when tasked with trying to predict a winner for the 2026 World Cup, “the bounce of the ball.”

Soccer is unpredictable by its very nature. A sport played with a round ball and the blunt instrument of the human foot is inherently beholden to the fickle fates of fortune.

This year’s quarterfinals neatly pits four former World Cup winners against a quartet chasing their first global trophy. There should be a clear favorite for each tie, but this tournament has already proven how flimsy preconceived conceptions of international hierarchy can be in this wonderfully mysterious sport.

Bear all that in mind when casting your eye over Sports Illustrated’s best attempts at a prediction for each World Cup quarterfinal.

France vs. Morocco

France is aiming to reach its third consecutive World Cup semifinal. | Jean Catuffe/Getty Images

For all the qualities of this evolved iteration of Morocco, it just seems like this outstanding France team is primed for another run to the final. —James Cormack

Mohamed Ouahbi’s preference for zippy, in-your-face soccer has elevated Morocco to one of the world’s best teams. It’s just that France probably is the best team. —Andrew Headspeath

A repeat of the 2022 World Cup semifinal promises sparks. Morocco, as we’ve seen many times already, will fight fire with fire under the more progressive Ouahbi, but France’s myriad of attacking superstars should get the job done. —Ewan Ross-Murray

It’s difficult to look past a France side that has a virtually unbreakable defense and world class options all across the frontline. —Jamie Spencer

Moroccan fans could be forgiven for echoing Erling Haaland’s thoughts before Norway’s encounter with Les Bleus in the group stage: “They’re probably going to win against us, they’re probably going to win the whole tournament.” —Grey Whitebloom

Spain vs. Belgium

Spain needed a late winner to beat Portugal. | Juan Luis Diaz/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images

Mikel Merino’s stoppage-time winner against Portugal highlighted Spain’s strength in depth, and it would seem as though they’re on a crash course to meet France in the last four. —J.C.

For Belgium, even another FIFA intervention probably wouldn’t provide the level of motivation needed to conjure up a win. —A.H.

It’s a miracle Belgium has made it this far. Spain hasn’t been anywhere near its European Championship-winning level just yet, but La Roja should still saunter into the semifinal relatively comfortably. —E.R.M.

A one-sided win over the USMNT doesn’t hide the fact that this version of Belgium is not a patch on the country’s 2018 peak. —J.S.

Spain has conceded five shots on target this entire tournament. Belgium will do well to even test Unai Simon. —G.W.

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Norway vs. England

Erling Haaland sent Norway through to the World Cup quarterfinals. | Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

The combination of Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham outweighs Erling Haaland’s solo genius. —J.C.

Clean sheets seem borderline impossible here, so it will come down to who has the greatest firepower. England's superior support for its superstar striker and Thomas Tuchel’s tactical acumen may prove the edge. —A.H.

When not greeted with stubborn low blocks, England has played out two high-scoring thrillers against Croatia and Mexico. More such chaos appears inevitable when matched with Haaland and Co., who are riding the ultimate wave of positivity after dumping out Brazil. —E.R.M.

That England might have preferred to face Brazil says a lot about what Norway has to offer in 2026. Still, there are goals to be scored against a team yet to keep a clean sheet in the tournament and Harry Kane is equally chasing a Golden Boot of his own. —J.S.

Haaland rated Norway’s chances of winning the World Cup at “0.5%” last summer. The odds of beating England are much higher, but would still represent a shock. —G.W.

Argentina vs. Switzerland

Argentina celebrated a thrilling win in Atlanta. | Julian Finney/FIFA/Getty Images

The world champion defy logic and reason. Argentina sacrifice width and thrive in chaos, relying on the glint in Lionel Messi’s eye. By contrast, there’s a comforting familiarity to Switzerland. You know what they are and they are not World Cup semifinalists. —J.C.

Is Argentina inevitable or faltering? Who knows anymore? Lionel Scaloni’s side is the heavy favorite to progress, but doing things the easy way doesn’t seem to be La Albiceleste’s priority. —A.H.

This clearly isn’t the same Argentina which won the 2022 World Cup—despite its team being practically identical—but its unity and sheer desire to win should be enough to progress. —E.R.M.

A much more comfortable run of opponents than most hasn’t actually served Argentina well in this World Cup. Switzerland is functional, organized and, as long as it doesn’t repeat the profligacy of the group stage, could finally do what the others didn’t quite. —J.S.

Argentina seems destined for the semifinals. Although, if you were to ask Egypt, that would be the case regardless of the opponent. —G.W.

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