NFL Week 7 picks: Upset and score predictions, matchup breakdowns for every game

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Analyst

Record (straight)

Record (ATS)

Bobby

54-38-1 (58.7%)

40-52-1 (43.5%)

Brooke

55-37-1 (59.8%)

43-49-1 (46.7%)

Dan

53-39-1 (57.6%)

38-54-1 (41.3%)

Gennaro

53-39-1 (57.6%)

41-51-1 (44.6%)

Jeremy

50-42-1 (54.3%)

41-51-1 (44.6%)

Consensus Picks

31-15 (67.4%)

5-10 (33.3%)

Why Jeremy picked the Steelers: Mon dieu, who knows what to expect in this one? The NFL's first-ever game in Paris pits two teams who had wildly different Week 6 experiences. The Steelers fell behind 13 points by the fourth quarter, then came back to win in OT, while the Saints went ahead by 24 points in the final frame and barely held on against a third-stringer at QB. In a matchup of two inconsistent sides, turnovers may be the deciding factor. Pittsburgh owns a distinct advantage in that department, ranking third in defensive takeaways, while the Saints offense ranks 28th in giveaways. On the other side of the ball, Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle should see a heavy workload against a New Orleans run defense that ranks 30th in the NFL, despite holding Giants RBs to just 34 yards in Week 6. Like New York's ground group, Pittsburgh's RB-by-committee is also working out the kinks -- Warren should really be a runaway RB1 -- but is in a far healthier place than Big Blue's and can carry the day for the Steelers on Sunday if Aaron Rodgers' short game isn't paying off.

Why Dan picked the 49ers: I know the 49ers are good (maybe even great), while the Falcons’ ups and downs make them hard to trust. Atlanta is capable of pulling off the upset -- in fact, the team is in great position to deal Kyle Shanahan’s crew its first loss with San Francisco making a cross-country trip on a short week as injuries to key players pile up. The Falcons wouldn’t squander their three-game homestand by dropping three straight, right? It’s a tempting thought, but I don’t like what I’m seeing from Atlanta in any phase right now. The defense has allowed 30-plus points in consecutive games, Bijan Robinson -- the focal point of the offense -- had just 11 touches last week (with a season-low 61 rush yards and negative yardage as a receiver) and rookie kick returner Zachariah Branch is coming off a two-fumble afternoon. That’s an awful lot to clean up in one week. I’m banking on MVP contender Brock Purdy playing a cleaner game than Michael Penix Jr. and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Fred Warner racing around the field to keep Robinson from going off.

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson breaks down why he is excited to face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7 of the 2026 NFL season.

Why Gennaro picked the Bengals: This is exactly why the Bengals traded the No. 10 overall pick for Dexter Lawrence. Cincinnati additionally upgraded the defensive front in free agency (Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen) and the draft (Cashius Howell), but Sexy Dexy was the crown jewel acquired to flip the script on Al Golden’s defense, and the 6-foot-5, 350-pounder has done just that. The Bengals had the NFL’s worst run defense last season. In 2026, they lead the league with a 23% stuff rate (rushing plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage). Now, the last time we saw these Bengals, they were gashed on the ground, with Malik Willis, Ollie Gordon II and the Dolphins rolling up 217 rushing yards to drop Cincy’s run D from eighth to 23rd (small sample sizes = big swings). But after a week of rest and review on the bye, the Bengals should be ready to put their best foot forward in Baltimore. Shoot, they better be. Despite Lamar Jackson’s absence for the past two and a half games, the Ravens still rank third in the league in rushing. Jackson returned to the practice field in a limited capacity on Wednesday, opening the possibility that he could be back in the starting lineup on Sunday. But even if it’s Tyler Huntley, Baltimore can still pound the rock with Derrick Henry. I just believe Lawrence and Co. are ready to pound back.

Why Dan picked the Panthers: I’m concerned that the Bucs have played some of their best football without Baker Mayfield on the field this season, and now it appears he’s likely to return after missing three games with a dislocated thumb on his right (throwing) hand. Even more troubling is that he might be making his return without the services of WR1 Emeka Egbuka, who is dealing with a concussion and a foot injury. That could make it tough to keep up with the fourth-best scoring offense (29.2 points per game) in the NFL entering Week 7. Tampa Bay has a good enough defense to knock Bryce Young off his torrid pace -- he leads the league with 309.8 pass yards per game -- but I can’t overlook that the Bucs have the second-lowest QB pressure rate (29.6%) despite blitzing at the third-highest clip (43.8%), per Next Gen Stats. Three of the last four games between the two teams have been decided by three points or fewer, and I expect it to be tight again. Carolina looks like the better operation right now, though.

Why Brooke picked the Texans: Roughly one month after being traded to New York, J.J. McCarthy will make his first start for the NFC East-leading Giants after giving them a fighting chance when Jameis Winston was benched last week. This week presents a tricky matchup for a third-stringer who's been far too inaccurate and struggled with turnovers in his young career. The run game is a concern, with the Giants shuffling through subpar backs and their one productive player failing too often to protect the ball. The G-Men appear in survival mode, while the Texans have rounded into form over the last two weeks after posting 21 points per game and allowing 27.3 PPG in Weeks 1-4 (all losses). In their back-to-back wins, Houston has recorded 30 points per game and given up 17 PPG. The defense is looking more like yesteryear's vaunted unit following DeMeco Ryans' decision to take the play-calling reins, and C.J. Stroud is playing the best ball of his career -- particularly when Nico Collins is on the field -- mostly avoiding turnovers (he threw his first INT of the season last week) and playing well under pressure. Plus, it's only a matter of time before he and new (and old) teammate Marvin Harrison Jr. produce some big plays. Stroud and Co. are playing well enough to overcome a banged-up rushing attack that's averaging just 84.8 rush yards per game. Houston returns home and notches a third straight victory.

Why Bobby picked the Vikings: The last time the Colts made a big midseason change, firing head coach Frank Reich and replacing him with former player Jeff Saturday in 2022, they defeated the Raiders in their very next game. Will history repeat itself on Sunday after the Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard following their loss to the previously winless Titans? No. No, it will not. The Vikings have too formidable a defense -- and the Colts have too many shortcomings on both sides of the ball -- for that to happen. Minnesota is stout against both the run (fifth in yards allowed) and pass (third), increasing the probability that Daniel Jones encounters big problems should Brian Flores’ defense slow down Jonathan Taylor. The Colts QB has done little this year to show he’s the same guy who appeared to have revived his career with Indy before tearing his Achilles last season. He's thrown just four touchdown passes against six interceptions -- add in four fumbles, and this is exactly the type of quarterback the Vikings can feast on. Kyler Murray also seemed to settle in more in Week 5 against the Saints, posting his best completion percentage (80%) and passer rating (109.6) as a Viking. Now, he’s coming off a bye to face a bottom-10 defense.

Why Jeremy picked the Jets: The calculus behind this pick is simple: The Jets have beaten the teams they should beat. Winless Miami, with its league-worst scoring offense, is a club that New York should handle. Like the Jets' previous vanquished foes in Tennessee and Cleveland, the Dolphins boast little to no offensive explosiveness. Ollie Gordon II has produced in place of the injured De'Von Achane, but with no aerial attack to speak of, the Jets front should be able to key in on the ground game and frustrate Miami. As long as New York plays error-free ball on offense -- Geno Smith's rare interception in Week 6 sank Gang Green's hopes of an upset in New England -- the Jets should take care of their rivals to the south. In their favor is a fully fleshed-out receiving corps, with Adonai Mitchell nearing a return to play alongside Garrett Wilson and healthy rookies Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq. With the Jets decked out in their white throwbacks, expect Geno to throw it around the park on Sunday afternoon.

Why Brooke picked the Titans: Despite the Browns possessing three more wins than Tennessee -- and several of those victories were against better opponents, in my opinion -- both teams rank in the bottom five in points per game with Cleveland averaging 17.7 (tied for 28th) and the latter 14 (tied for dead last). In fact, the Browns are one of just five teams in the last 20 seasons to win at least four of their first six games despite averaging fewer than 18 PPG. That's why I can't fully lean into Todd Monken's group with confidence in this game. Not to mention, a baker's dozen of Browns were on Wednesday's injury report, including the heartbeat of the defense in LB Carson Schwesinger (ankle). I'm not overly confident about the home team, either, to be clear. But last week's win proved to more than just the locker room that this team has what it takes to punch above its weight and win. In Jeffery Simmons and his friends on the D-line I trust against the most-sacked quarterback in the NFL. There is the question of which QB -- Cleveland's Deshaun Watson or Tennessee's Cam Ward -- will find the end zone before the fourth quarter? Heck, I'll take a swing. Give me the second-year passer with a strong dose of rookie Carnell Tate.

Why Bobby picked the Broncos: We technically just witnessed the formula for an Arizona victory. The Cardinals beat the Rams in Week 6 by taking advantage of an opposing offense that couldn’t get out of its own way and finding just enough points against a stingy defense. Like the Rams, the Broncos’ strength this season has been the defense, and their offense is even more inconsistent than Los Angeles’ has been. Last week's game felt different than this one for a couple of reasons, though. For one, the Cardinals D unquestionably benefited from coach Mike LaFleur knowing the ins and outs of the Rams offense. He served as L.A.’s offensive coordinator from 2023-25. The Broncos have also consistently found ways to win in spots where the Rams have fallen short, including head-to-head. Sunday is much more likely to serve as a get-right game for Bo Nix. While he’s been playing uninspired football, as evidenced by a career-worst 60.3 completion percentage despite throwing for a career-low 5.8 air yards per attempt, Arizona’s defense still ranks 31st in the league in points allowed after holding the Rams to 16 a week ago. It's now or never for Nix and Co. to start exhibiting some kind of boost from Sean Payton taking over play-calling.

Why Gennaro picked the Lions: Green Bay’s offense is ascendent, with Jordan Love dropping bombs to Matthew Golden and Christian Watson over the past couple weeks. Will RB Josh Jacobs’ impending return disrupt the quarterback’s flow state or give him the warm comfort of a complementary run game? It’s an interesting subplot to follow in the coming weeks, but when it comes to this particular NFC North bout, I’m actually more interested in the matchup when Detroit has the football. With Jahmyr Gibbs posting video game numbers and the eternally underappreciated Jared Goff boasting a 12:0 TD-to-INT ratio, the offense is humming under Drew Petzing. But now the Lions’ new coordinator must face his old boss. Petzing served as Arizona’s OC throughout Jonathan Gannon’s three-year tenure as Cardinals head coach. After Gannon was fired by the Cards in January, the Packers scooped him up to replace Jeff Hafley as their defensive coordinator, and the move has paid off handsomely. Outside of the Week 3 beatdown from Atlanta, Green Bay has exceeded all expectations on defense, ranking 10th in points and yards allowed despite Micah Parsons remaining sidelined by last December’s knee injury. However, this is easily the unit’s stiffest test yet. And while each coordinator in this showdown could benefit from maximum familiarity with his play-calling counterpart, Petzing has a clear edge in personnel -- an advantage that only becomes more pronounced with Cade Mays poised to finally make his Lions debut at center. I think Petzing gets the best of Gannon, and the Lions start division play with a win after going just 2-4 against NFC North rivals last season.

Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur explains why Detroit Lions' offense is so challenging to defend.

Why Brooke picked the Raiders: Of all the teams in the league, I would not have guessed the Rams would give me pause at this point in the season. But here we are. Special teams have been dreadful. Dreadful. The Rams have had four drives end on a blocked or missed field goal (tied for most in the NFL). The offense has been puzzling, too, with five drives ending on downs (tied for third-most) and six on a Matthew Stafford INT (tied for sixth-most). To make matters worse, red-zone threat Davante Adams is out at least six weeks with a hamstring injury. The defense has been decimated by injuries; stud DT Kobie Turner (groin) is the latest to go on IR. No, I don't think the sky is quite falling on the super team, but it does feel a little broken. The Raiders also have their issues -- Ashton Jeanty, where are you? -- but I like most of what I've seen from Klint Kubiak's team. The defense is getting takeaways, Kirk Cousins is playing his best football since before his 2023 Achilles injury, Brock Bowers is the best in the biz at the tight end position, and hey, Matt Gay has made all but one field goal (missed a 48-yarder in Week 5) and al 14 PATs. The Raiders are catching L.A. at an opportune time, and they lean on their kicker to boot them to glory in the final minute.

Why Gennaro picked the Chiefs: Back in February, Seattle completed the winningest season in franchise history by claiming its second Lombardi Trophy, while Kansas City was still reeling from its first losing campaign under Andy Reid, with Patrick Mahomes recovering from major knee surgery. What a difference eight months makes. Today, the Chiefs sit atop the AFC West as their conference’s only undefeated team, while the Seahawks already find themselves three games back in the NFC West as their conference’s only .500 team. It seems far too simple to attribute this reversal of fortunes to a single offseason move, but at the same time, Kenneth Walker III’s relocation from Seattle to Kansas City has clearly made a profound impact on both franchises. The Chiefs, who’ve never fielded a top-15 rushing attack during Mahomes’ time as a starter, rank second with an average of 159.8 ground yards per game. Walker leads the league with 665 rushing yards -- and that’s despite the fact that he’s played one fewer game than the next three leading rushers (Bijan Robinson, James Cook III and Derrick Henry), thanks to K.C.’s Week 5 bye. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have yet to finish a game with a 100-yard rusher, and their well-documented struggles on the ground are putting too much on Sam Darnold’s plate, as evidenced by the quarterback’s seven interceptions in the past four weeks. It’s impossible to not think back to free agency, when the ‘Hawks re-signed WR Rashid Shaheed to a three-year, $51 million deal and allowed Walker to walk to Kansas City for less money (three years, $43.05 million). Hindsight is 20/20, but the fallout from this transaction has given me the foresight to back the team with K9.

Why Bobby picked the Cowboys: Because Dallas simply has to win. The Eagles surely feel the same way, but they aren’t nearly as close to full strength as the Cowboys -- and probably won't be for the rest of the season now that Jalen Hurts is out due to blood clots. For as bad as the past two weeks have been for the Cowboys, they feel like a safer pick to turn things around in a division that is wide open. Dallas has been disappointing, but the Eagles have been in such disarray during the month of October that offensive lineman Jordan Mailata reflected on Week 5 as the “week from hell,” only to realize midweek last week that he “might have jumped the gun” describing it as such after problems continued to pile up. Since then, the Eagles lost their fourth straight and the aforementioned news on Hurts dropped, so be on the lookout for Mailata's latest re-evaluation of how low things can go. In a battle between Tanner McKee and Dak Prescott, I choose Prescott, who is due for a turnaround performance. He’s too good and surrounded by too many weapons to stay in a rut. Considering the Commanders are on a bye and the Giants are facing a resurgent Texans squad, the NFC East’s winless stretch could very well run from Oct. 5 through Oct. 25, rectified at long last by Dallas in prime time.

Why Dan picked the Bears: Injuries could catch up to New England. We saw in Green Bay that the Bears’ defense is susceptible to the aerial attack, but Drake Maye -- while red hot in the last two and a half games -- will be without his leading receiver (Romeo Doubs), and A.J. Brown appears to be far from top form after his drop-plagued return from injury last week. On the offensive line, the Patriots are down to their third-string right guard and second-string left guard. Also, they’ll be without starting CB Carlton Davis III for the third straight contest. The Bears will be missing a big part of their offense, too, with Kyle Monangai still sidelined, but they were able to get back to their dominant ways in time of possession without Monangai last week against a run defense that has been stingier than Mike Vrabel’s so far. If the ultra-efficient version of Caleb Williams shows up again, Chicago will be tough to beat. New England is one of the teams good enough to do so, but with the Pats having a short week to prepare for a road game against a fellow contender, I’ll take the home squad.

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